Foreign Policy

Having discussed Taiwan last week, we’ll turn our attention tomorrow to another neighbor of China–Australia. This country straddles a close relationship with the U.S. (including the “Five Eyes” alliance) and a strong (and, apparently, growing) economic relationship with China.

• How can the Australians manage this straddling position?
  • What sort of circumstances would force them to choose a side?
  • What can (or should) the U.S. do to strengthen the relationship?
• How important is the U.S.-Australia relationship?
  • To the U.S.?
  • To Australia?
• How should we expect Australia to adjust its strategic alliances over time?
  • With the prospect of growing Chinese influence in the region?

I’m sure there’ll be more to discuss.

As a reminder, the Blue Hill Public Library is closed tomorrow, February 20, in observance of Presidents Day. So the next Beyond Labels meeting will be on February 27.

At that meeting, we’ll follow up on our discussion about Russia and Ukraine to explore a question that arose in that context:

If the U.S. loses enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia, what message does that send to China and Taiwan about the analogous situation between them?

• How are the situations analogous? How not?
• Should the U.S. be preparing to support Taiwan as an independent “country?” (That seems like a heavily loaded term in this context!)
• How should China’s posture vis-a-vis Taiwan affect our trading relationship(s)?
• If each of us were President (or Secretary of State), how would we be navigating these relationships?
• Does the U.S. posture (so far) in Ukraine make the Taiwan situation more simple, or more complex?

Lots to consider.

With a fair amount of recent news relating to China, we plan to engage in a “survey” discussion of China. For example:

• Chinese protests. Do the recent protests against the Chinese government’s “zero Covid” policies pose a real risk to the government? In some quarters, the basis for the protests seems to have grown from anti-Covid-lockdowns to free speech.
  • Will the protests continue to grow?
  • Will the government’s relaxation of lockdowns in some cities encourage others to try the same protest strategy?
  • Will the response be more carrot (relaxed lockdowns) or stick (references to Tiananmen Square)?
• Trade with China. With both the U.S. and, maybe, Europe becoming more concerned with China’s tendency to autocracy, treatment of the Uighurs, and aggressive commercial/trade stance, will it matter?
  • Will trade with China decline (or at least level off)?
  • Or will short-term economics continue to drive increasing trade with a blind eye to these other factors?
• Taiwan. Is Chinese action on Taiwan imminent (within the expected duration of Xi’s presidency)?
  • How aggressively should the U.S. and its allies (both in Asia and Europe) prepare for this possibility (or take action to dissuade China from doing so?
• Russia. Should we be concerned about closer Sino-Russian relationships aligned against “Western values?”
  • Or has Russia’s seemingly poor performance in Ukraine weakened the strength of any such bond?

I’m sure there will plenty of “grist for the mill” and discussion. As an aside, I’ll be joining quite late on Monday. So don’t wait for me!