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FOR DECEMBER 29: PAKISTAN

Butler Smythe writes:  With recent terrorist activity in Pakistan (specifically the attack on the youth military school that resulted in over 140 deaths) there may be a refocusing of efforts by the Pakistani government on internal threats to their own security.
What if anything should the US government do to help or support Pakistan and how does that help the US?
How would any efforts be looked at by our principal allies in the fight on terror?

Art writes:  Should we make any reference to India-Pakistan relations, Kashmir, and the fragile relations between India and the US.?

The coming of AI

This article, by Kevin Kelley explains how and why the AI landscape has changed, and what we’re likely to see in the future.

He closes:

The greatest benefit of the arrival of artificial intelligence is that AIs will help define humanity. We need AIs to tell us who we are.

The problem of doing rigorous social science research

At the start of our meeting today I mentioned an interesting article about the difficulty of doing good social science research. It’s relevant to next week’s topic.

This article, written by Scott Alexander, currently my favorite  blogger/writer, reviews some of the social science research literature addressing this question:

Does the criminal justice system treat African-Americans fairly?

There’s plenty of evidence to support the argument that there’s unequal treatment. There’s also a lot of well-documented research that shows that when you adjust for confounding variables that the differences–or many of them–go away.

This response to the original article, and this follow-up  author of the first-reference post show that when you take confounding variables into account you may remove the data that you are trying to study.

So what’s a citizen to do? We can’t all do the kind of research that Scott Alexander does, and we’re all subject to the loud shouting coming from the liberal or conservative echo chambers of our choice–the ones that select the studies we’re likely to read–the ones carried out by the researchers who start with a point of view and then organize the data so that shows what they believed in the first place.

Confirmation bias anyone?

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