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Developments in Ukraine

February 28, 2014
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At last week’s meeting, there seemed to be general agreement that the U.S. shouldn’t get actively involved…almost no matter what happened. The thought, I think, was that we should voice our support for democracy and democratic institutions and for the right of the people to select their government. But talk…and support in the UN, etc….was all that was on offer.

Now the situation appears to be getting more complicated (as it often does):

  1. Armed forces (some say Russian troops, but this isn’t confirmed) have stationed themselves at two Crimean airports and are, according to news reports, turning people away from the airport premises.
  2. At least one Crimean mayor has been “forced to resign” and replaced with a pro-Russian businessman.
  3. Most importantly (I think) from a US perspective, we apparently were party to a 1994 pact in which Russia made “guarantees to acknowledge” Ukraine’s territorial integrity in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons.

This also harkens back to another issue we discussed a few weeks ago…people’s right to self-determination. Does it apply to the people of Ukraine? What about the Russian speakers in Ukraine? Crimea? Where should the line be drawn defining which groups get to “self-determine” and which do not?

Will these developments (and new information for those of us who don’t track Ukraine carefully) change the group’s views on more aggressive intervention?

State of the Union 2014

January 30, 2014
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The suggestion was made at last week’s meeting that we discuss the President’s State of the Union address next Monday (February 3). Hopefully many of you were able to see it live (or delayed).
If you want to study it more closely (and I encourage you to do so, for a better discussion on Monday), here’s a link to the transcript of the speech as drafted. (I noted a few very minor departures in the speech as given–mostly exclamations, repetitions and an extra word here or there—that don’t change the substance of what was (or wasn’t) said.)

State of the Union Address (whitehouse.gov)

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

December 2, 2013
1 Comment

This subject is scheduled to be discussed on December 9, 2013.

After years of an intensifying standoff between the U.N. Security Council and Iran, an agreement was recently announced to moderate the pace of Iran’s nuclear development and to provide a time frame for negotiating a more comprehensive agreement.

  • Does the agreement make war more or less likely? (On the face of it, many have argued that, while not perfect, the agreement makes military action much less likely. Others have taken the position that the six month time frame may severely narrow our options if the period elapses without significant progress toward a full agreement.)
  • Should Congress pass additional sanctions to bolster the pressure on Iran if they do not agree to severe limits on their nuclear activities?
  • What evidence is there that the Iranians are actually pursuing a nuclear weapon?
  • Israel and Saudi Arabia both seem to dislike this agreement…to what degree should that give the U.S. cause for concern?
  • How should we interpret the different ways the two sides characterize the agreement? The Iranians say the agreement recognizes their “right to enrich;” the US says they do not have any such right.)

Here are some recent Economist articles to read on the subject:

20131130 The Iran Deal (Economist)

20131130 Unlocking the Middle East (Economist)

 

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