Two weeks ago, we chose not to devote the discussion to the previous weekend’s “mutiny” (seems to be the favored term) by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries—we felt there were too few facts about where things stood.
We’ll never know everything we might like to, but things appear to have settled down a bit. So we decided to discuss the topic at next Monday’s meeting.
Potential Discussion Topics
- Has Putin’s hand been materially weakened? Or is he likely to succeed in purging his worst competition for power and pulling the rest of the military/elites closer to him and emerging stronger than before?
- Do we think these events will alter the course of the war in Ukraine? How so?
- What will happen to Prigozhin? Will he last in Belarus, or will he meet with an “unfortunate accident?”
- And the Wagner mercenaries? Will they join the Russian military forces? Coalesce in Belarus? Stay a quasi-independent mercenary force?