Last week, we decided to talk on Monday, 12 June about Ron DeSantis’s prospects to become the Republican Party’s nominee for President in the 2024 election. Given all the other Republicans who have already announced their candidacies, I suggest we broaden the topic to discuss the prospects of the people currently in the Republican field. This is an evolving situation, so the field may have changed by next Monday.
As of now (8 June, 4:25 pm), the following Republicans (in no particular order) have formally declared they’re running for the nomination:
He Who Shall Not Be Named
Mike Pence
Ron DeSantis
Asa Hutchison
Nikki Haley
Ryan Binkley
Doug Burgum
Chris Christie
Larry Elder
Perry Johnson
Vivek Ramaswamy
Tim Scott
In addition, Mike Rogers might decide to run (i.e., he hasn’t publicly ruled it out) and the following are considered to be possible but unlikely candidates who also haven’t yet publicly ruled out a run:
Greg Abbot
Kristi Noem
Marco Rubio
Glenn Youngkin
Finally, the following Republicans have ruled out a run in 2024:
Tom Cotton
Larry Hogan
Mike Pompeo
Rick Scott
Chris Sununu
For a brief rundown of the current candidates, see https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/
If the 2016 election cycle is any guide, most of these candidates will probably drop out by Super Tuesday (Tuesday, 5 March 2024). See the 2024 primary calendar at http://www.frontloadinghq.com/p/the-2024.html.
We might discuss the following questions next Monday, among others:
To the extent any of these candidates have actual policy positions, are there any material differences among them?
Which of the 12 currently declared candidates is likely to remain in the race after Super Tuesday?
Which of the 12 currently declared candidates has the least chance of getting the nomination? Assuming they understand that, why do you think they’re running?
Which of the currently declared candidates (other than He Who Shall Not Be Named) has, as of now, the best (or any) chance of winning the nomination?
What effect, if any, would one or more additional felony indictments brought between now and the Republican nominating convention (Milwaukee, 15-18 July 2024) have on the chances of He Who Shall Not Be Named being the nominee, assuming he gets the most votes during the primary season? Which potential felony indictment would be most likely to damage his chances, if you think any of them might?
If He Who Shall Not Be Named fails, for any reason, to become the Republican nominee, what are the chances he will run as an independent or third-party candidate?
In case I’m not able to attend next Monday’s meeting in person I’ll attend via Zoom, but someone who attends in person will need to use the computer in the Howard Room to start the meeting and make sure that the Owl speaker/microphone/camera is working. If necessary, Rich Boulet or someone from the Library’s circulation desk can help with that.