We’ll continue our “Foreign Policy” run with a discussion of Iran
- Bob Sargent bet that “Iran would become a constitutional democracy within the next three years” (did I get that right?)–we’ll push Bob on why he thinks this will occur, especially on such a short time frame.
- How different do we think the aspirations/perspective of the Iranian people are distinct from the government/theocracy?
- How might change occur? Another “Green Revolution?” Democratic process? Will the theocracy and the Revolutionary Guard relax their grip on power?
- What about Iran’s neighbors? Israel, Saudi Arabia on one side; Syria, Lebanon, [Afghanistan], portions of Iraq on the other? What will their role be?
- What will be the implications of the US’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions on Iran and its trading partners? On Iran? On Europe and the other parties to the agreement? On the US?
- What about the scenario where an Iranian regime under pressure might become belligerent vis-a-vis it’s neighbors (Israel and Saudi Arabia) in a way that escalates into a regional (or worse) conflict?
- And what does all this mean in the context of a possible (likely?) continuation of Iran’s focus on constructing nuclear weapons?
I won’t be able to attend tomorrow, but I look forward to a debrief after the fact!