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Prediction markets have Trump at 71%. Holy crap!

Donald Trump. Presidential Market at 2/25
Donald Trump. PredicitIt Presidential Market 2/25



Of course the prediction markets don’t choose the nominee, but still.  Who would have thought that?

Actually, Matt Taibi, of Rolling Stone did in August, here, in an article title “Donald Trump just stopped being funny” and has updated his analysis with an RS cover story explaining why he thinks Trump is winning and is gonna win,  here.


For those who don’t look to Rolling Stone for political analysis, they are actually pretty good, and they are funny, even when not good. Back when I had a subscription I always turned first to the essay by conservative political writer PJ O’Rourke, who the Guardian cites,  in this Guardian article, as being “the most quoted living writer in the Penguin Dictionary of Modern Humorous Quotations.” in this Guardian article.”

He deserves the reputation. He’s really funny. Matt Taibi is his heir, also funny, but not as good as PJ, and probably a liberal. His language (and PJ’s) is a bit salty for some tastes. Not for my tastes, mind you. But some. Consider yourself warned.

The Guardian goes on:

For many leftwingers PJ O’Rourke occupies a unique position. The famed American humorist and once notoriously hard-living journalist is the Republican that you liked. His caustic wit and warm humanity shone through his writing even when he was attacking your most firmly held political beliefs.

That fits.

The first PJ book I read was called “Republican Party Reptiles.”  He described himself, and other Reptiles, this way:

“We look like Republicans, and think like conservatives, but we drive a lot faster and keep vibrators and baby oil and a video camera behind the stack of sweaters on the bedroom closet shelf. I think our agenda is clear. We are opposed to: government spending, Kennedy kids, seat-belt laws, being a pussy about nuclear power, busing our children anywhere other than Yale, trailer courts near our vacation homes, Gary Hart, all tiny Third World countries that don’t have banking secrecy laws, aerobics, the U.N., taxation without tax loopholes, and jewelry on men. We are in favor of: guns, drugs, fast cars, free love (if our wives don’t find out), a sound dollar, cleaner environment (poor people should cut it out with the graffiti), a strong military with spiffy uniforms, Nastassia Kinski, Star Wars (and anything else that scares the Russkis), and a firm stand on the Middle East (raze buildings, burn crops, plow the earth with salt, and sell the population into bondage).”

The book contained an essay that I still think has the funniest title ever written:  “How Drive Fast on Drugs While Getting Your Wing-Wang Squeezed and Not Spill Your Drink”, reproduced here.

Anyway, Trump at 71%? Holy crap!

(Cross posted to my blog, here)

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