If we continue our conversation about the Israel-Iran war next week, here’s a link to a relevant opinion piece by Tom Friedman in the 16 June edition of The New York Times proposing what Trump should do next in the Middle East. I think Friedman describes a strategy similar to that proposed last week by all of us, collectively, but smarter.
In summary, Friedman proposes the following:
- The US should tell Iran we will supply Israel with the weapons it needs to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear capacity unless Iran immediately agrees to allow the IAEA to dismantle all of those facilities and remove all of Iran’s missile materials. This is what a majority of us proposed last week. (Friedman also proposes that “[o]nly if Iran completely complies with these conditions should it be allowed to have a civilian nuclear program under strict IAEA controls.”
- The US should recognize Palestinians’ right to national self-determination, provided “… that they can fulfill the responsibilities of statehood by generating a new Palestinian Authority leadership that the United States deems credible, free of corruption and committed both to effectively serving Palestinian citizens in the West Bank and Gaza and to coexisting with Israel.” This a step in the direction of what Peter proposed last week, but without the immediate US recognition of a Palestinian state. (Friedman doesn’t expressly condition that recognition on Palestinians’ committing to form a secular state, although perhaps “coexisting with Israel” is intended to imply that. Friedman also doesn’t call for US recognition of a Palestinian state if the conditions he describes here are met. Does that imply that the US should do so only if and when Israel and a reconstituted Palestinian Authority reach agreement on a two-state solution that establishes mutually acceptable borders and security guarantees for Israel?
- The US must tell Israel it won’t tolerate “… the rapid settlement expansion and one-state reality that Israel is now creating ….” (Friedman doesn’t call for Israel to end all “expansion” of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, or say what the US should do if Israel creates new settlements or “expands” existing ones, nor does he call for the removal of any Israeli settlers. I suppose Friedman would leave this last issue for Israel and the Palestinians to negotiate.)
- Finally, Friedman says, “Trump could also say that his administration will be committed to sponsoring peace talks for a two-state solution — with the Trump peace plan for a pathway toward two states from his previous presidency as the minimum starting point but not ending point. That, the parties themselves must negotiate directly.” (Friedman says Trump “could” do this but says Trump “should” or “must” do what he proposes in items 1-3. Also, I’m not sure what “sponsoring” peace talks entails. I’m also not sure what Friedman expects to happen if the US doesn’t say it will “sponsor” peace talks. Should another country do that? Which one(s)? Should the UN do that? Would “sponsoring” peace talks be conditional on Hamas releasing all remaining hostages? On Israel releasing its Palestinian prisoners, particularly those who could form the core of a new Palestinian Authority or participate in peace talks? Do Hamas or Mahmoud Abbas have any role to play in any of this?)