Beyond Labels

A 360° Discussion of Foreign, National and Local Policy Issues

Monthly Archives January 2016

CO2: Maybe a pause, maybe a turning point

Follow up to my post on my post on Climate change change,  an article in Bloomberg is also optimistic that things are moving in a better direction.

… I have some very good news thttp://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-15/it-looks-like-global-carbon-emissions-hit-a-peakreo report. In 2015, global carbon emissions actually fell.

This isn’t an occasion for complacency. The fall might be a temporary blip. Even if it’s not, emissions represent the amount of additional carbon that is added to the atmosphere every year — that carbon builds up, so to really halt climate change we will need to decrease emissions drastically, not just halt their growth.

Most of the drop, the article admits, comes from China’s economic slowdown, which will ultimately reverse itself. But some of it comes from the cost-effectiveness of solar in a growing number of areas, even without subsidies, and even with relatively low fossil fuel prices. Some comes from the increasing prices of good quality coal. And some comes from the shift in perception and politics that “has caused even growth-obsessed China to be worried.”

Maybe guns do kill people, but maybe it’s mainly the owners themselves

A while ago I came across an article (here) that included this graphic and posted it on this site, here.

Scott and Mike commented back. Scott pointed out (correctly) that correlation does not imply causation. Mike mentioned suicides. Which, as it turns out, turns the argument on its head.
Scott Alexander at SlateStarCodes, who is smarter and more diligent than me, did a deeper dive, and found out some interesting things.  Here’s his post, from which the rest of this is drawn.
There’s a LOT more in the post. IMO he represents what we might all aspire to in analyzing these complex issues.
Gun deaths is “gun suicides” plus “gun homicides.” Here’s what the gun suicide graph looks like.
Seems like there’s a pretty clear correlation between more guns and more gun suicides. And if I was anti-gun (I am not, by the way) and if gun owners are going to off themselves in increasing numbers the more guns, then that’s fine with me.
But if you pull the gun suicides out of the gun deaths numbers you end up with this relationship for gun homicides:

To the extent that there’s any trend, it’s one that shows that more guns implies less murder.

That’s just the beginning. Again I encourage you to read the entire post,  link here. It’s worth reading, just to see how this sort of thing ought to be done.

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