Beyond Labels

Really?

Really?

Of course the prediction markets don’t choose the nominee, but still.  Who would have thought that?

Actually, Matt Taibi, of Rolling Stone did in August, here, in an article title “Donald Trump just stopped being funny” and has updated his analysis with an RS cover story explaining why he thinks Trump is winning and is gonna win,  here.

Really?

For those who don’t look to Rolling Stone for political analysis, they are actually pretty good, and they are funny, even when not good. Back when I had a subscription I always turned first to the essay by conservative political writer PJ O’Rourke, who the Guardian cites,  in this Guardian article, as being “the most quoted living writer in the Penguin Dictionary of Modern Humorous Quotations.” in this Guardian article.”

He deserves the reputation. He’s really funny. Matt Taibi is his heir, also funny, but not as good as PJ, and probably a liberal. His language (and PJ’s) is a bit salty for some tastes. Not for my tastes, mind you. But some. Consider yourself warned.

The Guardian goes on:

For many leftwingers PJ O’Rourke occupies a unique position. The famed American humorist and once notoriously hard-living journalist is the Republican that you liked. His caustic wit and warm humanity shone through his writing even when he was attacking your most firmly held political beliefs.

That fits.

The first PJ book I read was called “Republican Party Reptiles.”  He described himself, and other Reptiles, this way:

“We look like Republicans, and think like conservatives, but we drive a lot faster and keep vibrators and baby oil and a video camera behind the stack of sweaters on the bedroom closet shelf. I think our agenda is clear. We are opposed to: government spending, Kennedy kids, seat-belt laws, being a pussy about nuclear power, busing our children anywhere other than Yale, trailer courts near our vacation homes, Gary Hart, all tiny Third World countries that don’t have banking secrecy laws, aerobics, the U.N., taxation without tax loopholes, and jewelry on men. We are in favor of: guns, drugs, fast cars, free love (if our wives don’t find out), a sound dollar, cleaner environment (poor people should cut it out with the graffiti), a strong military with spiffy uniforms, Nastassia Kinski, Star Wars (and anything else that scares the Russkis), and a firm stand on the Middle East (raze buildings, burn crops, plow the earth with salt, and sell the population into bondage).”

The book contained an essay that I still think has the funniest title ever written:  “How Drive Fast on Drugs While Getting Your Wing-Wang Squeezed and Not Spill Your Drink”, reproduced here.

Anyway, Trump at 71%? Holy crap!

(Cross posted to my blog, here)

Facts: Wikipedia article on Supreme Court Nominations gives the number of days for a nomination to be approved, withdrawn, or rejected.  The longest was 114 days to reject Robert Bork, payback for his role in the “Saturday Night Massacre.”

Prediction Market “Will the Senate confirm the next SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office?” says 30% likely to confirm, 70% to not.

Prediction market: who will Obama nominate?

Sri Srinivasan 39%
Loretta Lynch 19%
Jane Louise Kelly 14%

Speculation:

The prediction markets favor the next president being a Democrat. They also give the Dems a roughly 50-50 chance of taking the Senate (51/49 Republicans, right now).

Republican obstruction of a moderate Obama nominee will result in a more liberal nominee — if the Republicans keep the Senate — and as liberal a confirmed justice as you can imagine if the Republicans lose it. So while Republican rhetoric can say one thing, Republican political calculations are likely to lead to a different outcome.

This whole dust-up might make a difference in who wins the White House, but there’s a better chance that it could affect the Senate make-up.

So doing the math,  if Obama nominates Srinivasan he is likely to be confirmed. It costs the Republicans little to do this — after dragging their heels suitably to satisfy their base.  He’s moderate — even conservative, which is why he was confirmed for his current post. It’s a pretty good deal for the Republicans.

To take the Senate, the Dems need to get four seats in the battleground states:

• New Hampshire
• Wisconsin
• Illinois
• Colorado
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Nevada
• Florida
• Arizona

If Srinivasan is nominated, I’d expect the nativist wing of the Republican party to go batshit.  What kind of a name is Srinivasan? He’s not a real American! He’s a Muslim. No, he’s a Hindu. Well, we don’t care which kind of Muslim he is, he’s still a Muslim. And where’s his birth certificate? He’s not even native born. Well, that’s not a requirement for Supreme Court justice. Well, it should be! And so on.

Meanwhile just enough moderate Republicans would say: “Well, we disagree with the President’s choice, but he does have the credentials, and it’s our responsibility to keep the government working, so we’ll reluctantly, very reluctantly, in the spirit of bipartisanship, vote to confirm the guy who is the best thing we’re likely to see.”

Of course if Obama wants to choose a person who will give the Republicans a lot of trouble, not the person who is most likely to be confirmed, he might pick Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar currently associate justice of the California Supreme Court. The Daily Beast describes him as “The GOP’s worst SCOTUS nightmare.” He’s liberal, which means he’ll side against them. He’s young, which means he’ll be around for a long time. He was confirmed to the California Supreme court by a unanimous bipartisan vote. He was given the highest rating by the California bar association. His wife is an Asian, Lucy Koh, a US district judge, confirmed unanimously by the Senate. So there’s another demographic to lose.

He is, like Srinivasan, a naturalized citizen, but the nativist reaction against Cuéllar carries a greater penalty than one against Srinivasan. There is no Indian voting bloc to be lost by trashing Srinivasan, but there is a Latino bloc to be lost trashing Cuéllar. That might help Hillary and might turn the tide in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. And I think that the the open-minded independents of the other battleground states are likely to be more offended by the Republicans trashing a Mexican with impeccable credentials than by their trashing an Indian with comparably good credentials.

Cuéllar is not even listed on the prediction market, so I hope that I’m being way too cynical.

David Cohen, Deputy Director of the CIA in an interview on PBS on 2/10/16 listed the hot spots which he worries about:

ISIL, Syria and Iraq, Russia, North Korea, Cyber attacks, and Iran nuclear deal.

We also may want to include the Arab Spring: Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen.   Also Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the South China Sea.

Other present issues:  The Campaign and The Supreme Court vacancy.